The strong stock performance of the past year is unlikely to last, according to some of the biggest U.S. institutional investors.
The response by central banks around the world to the coronavirus pandemic has boosted equity returns, Mary Erdoes, JPMorgan Chase head of asset and wealth management, said Wednesday at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha conference.
“Since last year’s Delivering Alpha, markets are up 30% to 50%, clearly not normal,” Erdoes said. “We’re enjoying it, but this is not a normal time period.”
Stock returns are likely to be “much more muted” going forward, while volatility will remain the same, according to Jason Klein, chief investment officer at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.
The CIO said expectations for 10% average annualized returns should be closer to 5%.
“What had been tail winds are now headwinds,” said Klein. To his eye, stock valuations are “stretched market wide” and could be vulnerable as the Federal Reserve pulls back the extraordinary support it has provided markets since 2020.